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Leonardo Myers
Leonardo Myers

Discover the Secrets of Learning English Quickly and Easily with Callan Method Book 1 46



The rest of the paper is arranged as follows. We describe the proposed new test, a penalized maximal t test, in section 2. Then, we compare this method with SNHT using Monte Carlo simulations in section 3 and using atmospheric pressure data series from a Canadian station in section 4. We give some concluding remarks in section 5.




Callan Method Book 1 46



In this section, we present an application of PMT and SNHT to detect undocumented mean shifts in climate data series. The purpose is to see which of the two methods performs better in practical use. Thus, we need to be able to verify the results. That is, we need to apply the methods to a time series that contains a documented mean shift (i.e., we know exactly when the shift occurred) to see if the methods can detect the mean shift if we did not know about it (i.e., if we treat it as undocumented for the purpose of this application). To this end, we apply PMT and SNHT to time series of monthly mean and annual mean station pressure recorded at Burgeo (Newfoundland, Canada) for the 28-yr period from January 1967 to December 1994 (no data outside this period), because we know that the pressure series contains an artificial mean shift (see Fig. 5a) that is caused by neglecting the station elevation of 10.6 m in the calculation of station pressures from barometer readings in the period prior to January 1977 (a problem of the so-called 50-feet rule, which is to use zero elevation in the calculation of station pressures from barometer readings if the station elevation is less than 50 ft, i.e., 15 m). According to a physically based estimate using a hydrostatic model and hourly pressure and temperature data (Wan et al. 2007), neglecting such an elevation causes a bias of 1.32 hPa on pressure values.


Also, both PMT and SNHT assume that the errors in the time series being tested are IID Gaussian, which is hardly true for climate data series (even for annual series as discussed in section 4). Autocorrelation and periodicity are typically inherent in climate data series. Periodicity and trend can be greatly diminished by using a good reference that has the same trend and periodicity as the base series, but the use of reference series cannot diminish autocorrelation in the time series being tested. Thus, it is of crucial importance for a test of undocumented changepoint to take into account the effect of autocorrelation and periodicity in the time series. Lund et al. (2007) recently proposed a new method for changepoint detection in periodic and autocorrelated time series, although the effect of unequal sample sizes is yet to be taken into account in this new method. The latter should be the subject for our next study.


Based on Trena's story, McElroy was indicted in June 1973 for arson, assault, and statutory rape. He was arrested, booked, arraigned, and released on $2,500 bail.[6] Trena and her baby were placed in foster care at a home in Maryville, Missouri. McElroy sat outside the foster home for hours at a time staring at it. He told the foster family that he would trade "girl for girl" to get his child back, since he knew where the foster family's biological daughter went to school and what bus route she rode. Additional charges were filed against McElroy.[7]


As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it. References listed on IDEAS asHTMLHTML with abstractplain textplain text with abstractBibTeXRIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)ReDIFJSON Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998."Measuring Monetary Policy,"The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy,"Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy,"NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy,"Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999."Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model,"NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126,National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Julio J. 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Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, "undated". "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). John C. Williams, 2003."Simple rules for monetary policy,"Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995."Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Taylor, John B., 1993."Discretion versus policy rules in practice,"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS) Most related itemsThese are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004."Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero,"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero,"Working Paper Series 231, European Central Bank. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero,"CEPR Discussion Papers 3892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero,"CFS Working Paper Series 2003/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS). Guenter Coenen & Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero,"CFS Working Paper Series 2003/13, Center for Financial Studies.repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200313 is not listed on IDEAS Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005."A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities,"European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities,"Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2000. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities,"Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities,"CEPR Discussion Papers 3574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Guenter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2003. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities,"CFS Working Paper Series 2003/08, Center for Financial Studies. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities,"CFS Working Paper Series 2003/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200308 is not listed on IDEAS Giannoni, Marc P., 2002."Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model,"Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000."Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence,"Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence,"Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999."The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective,"Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Michael Woodford, 1999."Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia,"Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35. Michael Woodford, 1999."Optimal monetary policy inertia,"Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.,"Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia,"Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia,"NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia,"CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS). Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013."Forecasting and Policy Making,"Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325,Elsevier. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making,"IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS). Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson & Myles Callan, 2002."Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty,"Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 239-265, October. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty,"CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999."Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule,"Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule,"CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS). Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006."Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?,"International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?,"Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003."On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators,"Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April. Linde, Jesper, 2005."Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach,"Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach,"Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2005. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003."Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy,"Economics Letters, Elsevier, v


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